Glossary

Atlas of NSW Wildlife
The NSW Office of Environment and Heritage's database of flora and fauna records.

ANUCLIM
ANUCLIM1 is a software package that enables users to obtain estimates, in point and grid form, of monthly, seasonal and annual mean climate variables from supplied climate surfaces.

ANUSPLIN
ANUSPLIN2 package provides a facility for transparent analysis and interpolation of noisy multi-variate data using thin plate smoothing splines, through comprehensive statistical analyses, data diagnostics and spatially distributed standard errors. It also supports flexible data input and surface interrogation procedures.

AUC
The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) is a measure of how well a parameter can distinguish between two diagnostic groups (diseased/normal).

BIOCLIMATIC VARIABLES
Bioclimatic variables are derived from the monthly temperature and rainfall values in order to generate more biologically meaningful variables. These are often used in species distribution modeling and related ecological modeling techniques. The bioclimatic variables represent annual trends (e.g., mean annual temperature, annual precipitation) seasonality (e.g., annual range in temperature and precipitation) and extreme or limiting environmental factors (e.g., temperature of the coldest and warmest month, and precipitation of the wet and dry quarters). A quarter is a period of three months (1/4 of the year).

CCCMA CGCM3.1(T47)
The third version of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA) Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3)3 makes use of the same ocean component as that used in the earlier The Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model, but it makes use of the substantially updated atmospheric component The Third Generation Atmospheric General Circulation Model. CGCM3.1 was used to produce an extensive suite f model simulations for use in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The T47 version has a surface grid whose spatial resolution is roughly 3.75 degrees lat/lon and 31 levels in the vertical. The ocean grid shares the same land mask as the atmosphere, but has four ocean grid cells underlying every atmospheric grid cell. The ocean resolution in this case is roughly 1.85 degrees, with 29 levels in the vertical.

CLIMATE REFUGIA
Climate refugia are areas where species can retreat to and persist in under changing environmental conditions5. In other words, refugia are areas that maintain favourable climatic conditions absent in the surrounding landscape5,6, thereby safeguarding the persistence of biodiversity. Two key types of refugia, termed internal or external, are determined by their spatial relationship with species' known distributions. Internal refugia can be identified as occurring in areas where a) there are currently populations of the target species and b) those areas remain suitable in future conditions. External refugia are areas beyond the current boundary of a species distribution.

CMIP3
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) constitutes the archived data of the climate model output from simulations of the past, present and future climate collected by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison during the years 2005 and 2006. The CMIP3 included "realistic" scenarios for both past and present climate forcing.

CSIRO-Mk3.0
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Mk34 climate system model contains a comprehensive representation of the four major components of the climate system (atmosphere, land surface, oceans and sea-ice), and in its current form is as comprehensive as any of the global coupled models available worldwide. The major aim in the development of the Mk3 climate model has been to provide a coupled atmosphere-ocean system that gives a significantly improved representation of the current climate relative to the prior model generations.

ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHAM is an atmospheric general circulation model, developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. It forms the atmospheric component of the MPI-ESM. The ECHAM development branched from an early (ca 1987) version of the global numerical weather prediction model developed at the ECMWF, and has since been continually developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled model was used for the CMIP3 project, and for the internal Millennium project.

GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
GCMs represent the atmosphere and ocean on three-dimensional grids, with different atmospheric resolutions and levels in the vertical. Models explicitly represent large-scale synoptic features of the atmosphere, such as the progression of high and low pressure systems, and large scale oceanic currents and overturning. However many important physical processes occur at finer spatial scales.

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION ACT 1999 (EPBC Act)
The Australian Government's central piece of environmental legislation that provides for the protection and management of nationally and internationally important flora, fauna, ecological communities and heritage places (defined under the Act as matters of national environmental significance). Under the Act, threatened species and ecological communities can be listed as Conservation dependent, Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered, Extinct in wild or Extinct. Further information on the EPBC Act

FAMILY
Family names were taken directly from the Schedules of the Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995 (NSW) and were current at the time of listing.

IBRA REGION
The Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation of Australia (IBRA) classifies Australia's landscapes into large geographically distinct bioregions based on common climate, geology, landform, native vegetation and species information. Information on IBRA region for each species or community is derived from the listing of the species or community on the Schedules of the Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995 (NSW).

IPCC
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the international body for assessing the science related to climate change. The IPCC was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to provide policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation.

IPCC assessments provide a scientific basis for governments at all levels to develop climate related policies, and they underlie negotiations at the UN Climate Conference - the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The assessments are policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive: they may present projections of future climate change based on different scenarios and the risks that climate change poses and discuss the implications of response options, but they do not tell policymakers what actions to take.

LGA
Local Government Areas: areas within Australia over which incorporated local governing bodies have responsibility. Information on LGA for each species or community is derived from the listing of the species or community on the Schedules of the Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995 (NSW).

MAXENT
The Maxent software is based on the maximum-entropy approach for species habitat modeling5,6. This software takes as input a set of layers or environmental variables (such as elevation, temperature, precipitation, etc.), as well as a set of georeferenced occurrence locations, and produces a model of the range of the given species.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF THE WARMEST MONTH
The highest temperature of any monthly maximum temperature.

MEAN DIURNAL RANGE
The mean of all the monthly diurnal temperature ranges. Each monthly diurnal range is the difference between that month's maximum and minimum temperature.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF THE COLDEST MONTH
The lowest temperature of any monthly minimum temperature.

MIROC3.2(medres)
The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC3.2) was developed by the University of Tokyo Center for Climate System Research, the National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan. MIROC3.2 were included in the IPCC's 4th Assessment Report (2007) and contribute to the IPCC "consensus" of global warming projections. And the medium resolution model (MIROC3.2(medres)) is among the Top 5 warmest models.

NARCliM
The NSW and ACT Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) Project is a research partnership between the NSW and ACT governments and the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of NSW. The project began in 2011 in response to the need by regional decision makers and impact assessment researchers for high resolution climate change projections. Previously climate change information had been at a scale that could not be used for localised decisions. NARCliM has produced an ensemble of robust regional climate projections for south-eastern Australia that can be used by the NSW and ACT community to plan for the range of likely future changes in climate.

NSW LOCAL LAND SERVICE
There are 11 Local Land Service regions within NSW whose mission is to provide publicly-funded biosecurity, natural resources management and agricultural advisory services.

NEW SOUTH WALES SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE
An independent committee of scientists appointed by the Minister. The NSW Scientific Committee is responsible for deciding which species, populations and communities should be listed as threatened by extinction in New South Wales. Further information on the NSW Scientific Committee.

NEW SOUTH WALES SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE DETERMINATION
The NSW Scientific Committee makes Determinations about the species, populations, communities and key threatening processes that are listed under the Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995 (NSW). View all NSW Scientific Committee Final Determinations

NSW OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENT AND HERITAGE
The New South Wales Government agency that works to protect and conserve the NSW environment, including the natural environment, Aboriginal country, culture and heritage and built heritage, and manages NSW national parks and reserves.

NSW OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENT AND HERITAGE THREATENED SPECIES PROFILES
Profiles of threatened species and ecological communities available through the Office of Environment and Heritage website.
(Example species profile)

PRECIPITATION OF THE DRIEST MONTH
The precipitation of the driest month.

PRECIPITATION OF THE WETTEST MONTH
The precipitation of the wettest month.

PRECIPITATION SEASONALITY
The Coefficient of Variation is the standard deviation of the monthly precipitation estimates expressed as a percentage of the mean of those estimates (i.e. the annual mean).

RANGE SIZE
The areal extent of a species range in km2 as measured by either the extent of occurrence (here, the area inside an alpha-convex hull encompassing all occurrences) or the area of occupancy (here, the sum of the area of all the 1 x 1 km grid cells occupied by the species across Australia).

REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL
A regional climate model (RCM) is a climate model of higher spatial resolution than a Global climate model (GCM). An RCM can sit within a global model to provide more detailed simulations for a particular location.

REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. It supersedes Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) projections published in 2000. The pathways are used for climate modeling and research. They describe four possible climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. The four RCPs, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5, are named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2, respectively)

SAVING OUR SPECIES MANAGEMENT STREAM
As part of the NSW Government's Saving our Species program, threatened species have been allocated to one of six management streams depending on their distribution, ecology, security, and what is known about them. The six management streams are: Site-managed species, Iconic species, Data-deficient species, Landscape-managed species, Partnership species and Keep watch species.

SAVING OUR SPECIES PROGRAM
The New South Wales Government's conservation program that aims to maximise the number of threatened species that can be secured in the wild in NSW for 100 years. Threatened species are allocated to one of six management streams and prioritised for management action. Further information on the Saving our Species program

SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODEL
Species distribution modeling (SDM) is used to explore how the occurrence of a species is related to the environment, and how a species might respond to changes in its environment. This can help find new locations where a rare species might be found, or understand the potential threats to a species due to urban encroachment, climate change, or other causes. SDM is also known under other names including climate envelope-modeling, habitat modeling, and (environmental or ecological) niche-modeling. The aim of SDM is to estimate the similarity of the conditions at any site to the conditions at the locations of known occurrence (and perhaps of non-occurrence) of a phenomenon. A common application of this method is to predict species ranges with climate data as predictors.

SITE-MANAGED SPECIES
One of the six management streams under the NSW Government's Saving our Species conservation program. Site-managed species are those best managed by carrying out targeted conservation projects on specific sites.

SPECIES
Species name as it appears on the Schedules of the Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995 (NSW).

SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARIOS
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) writing team formulated a set of emissions scenarios. These scenarios cover a wide range of the main driving forces of future emissions, from demographic to technological and economic developments. The scenarios encompass different future developments that might influence greenhouse gas (GHG) sources and sinks, such as alternative structures of energy systems and land-use changes.

TEMPERATURE SEASONALITY
Standard deviation of mean monthly temperature, multiplied by 100.

THREAT STATUS
Listing of species or community as Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable on the Schedules of the Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995 (NSW).

THREATENED SPECIES CONSERVATION ACT 1995 (NSW) (TSC Act)
Legislation that provides for the conservation of threatened species, populations and ecological communities of animals and plants in NSW (the Act does not generally apply to fish). Further information on the TSC Act

THREATENED SPECIES CONSERVATION REGULATION 2010 (NSW)
Prescribes the criteria for the listing of critically endangered species, endangered species, vulnerable species, endangered populations, critically endangered ecological communities, endangered ecological communities and vulnerable ecological communities under the Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995.

References
1. Xu, T. & Hutchinson, M. F. ANUCLIM Version 6.1 User Guide. (Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, 2011).
2. Hutchinson, M. F. & Xu, T. B. ANUSPLIN Version 4.4 User Guide. (The Australian National University, Canberra, 2013).
3. Flato, G. CGCM3.1-T47_(med-res) PICNTRL run1. (World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ, 2005).
4. Gordon, H. B. et al. The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model. (Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research. (CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper; no. 60), 2002).
5. Phillips, S. J., Anderson, R. P. & Schapire, R. E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 190, 231-259 (2006).
6. Phillips, S. J. & Dudík, M. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31, 161-175 (2008).